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Grey Matters: CFO's Third Annual Knowledge Capital Scorecard
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Companies with some of the highest ratios, such as Broadcom (8.5) and Siebel Systems (5.8), have since experienced some of the most severe slides in the stock market. Broadcom is down 80 percent since last August, and Siebel is down 60 percent. In contrast, companies trading at low multiples of comprehensive value fared far better. The shares of Rockwell International, for example, with a ratio of 0.62, and Georgia Pacific (0.35) were both up 15 percent over the same period.

"We compared it with other metrics, and this was a particularly strong result," says Bothwell. "If a stock looked overvalued according to our metric, the market realigned it." Giving further credence to the argument that intangible assets and knowledge capital are the real drivers of value in corporate enterprises.

BUILDING A BETTER SCORECARD

WHAT ARE KNOWLEDGE EARNINGS and knowledge capital? New York University accounting and finance professor Baruch Lev's methodology for computing these values begins with an estimate of a company's "normalized earnings." That figure is derived from the average of three years of historical core earnings, and three years of consensus analyst estimates as compiled by IBES International. Thus, knowledge earnings reflect both past performance and future growth potential.

These normalized earnings are then compared with the expected rates of return on the company's physical and financial assets as recorded on its balance sheet. In the competitive global marketplace, physical and financial assets have largely become commodities. The expected aftertax returns used in the broad cross-sectional Scorecard are 7 percent for physical assets and 4.5 percent for financial assets. In company- specific measurements, physical and financial assets are adjusted to fair values, and their expected returns are adjusted to company circumstances.

The portion of normalized earnings for any given year that exceeds the expected returns on book assets represents knowledge earnings--the performance contribution attributable to the intangible assets of a company. Knowledge capital is then computed as the present discounted value of all future knowledge earnings. Without a widely accepted expected rate of return for knowledge assets, the average 10.5 percent historical aftertax return of three knowledge-rich industries (software, biotechnology, and pharmaceuticals) is used as the discount rate.


ACROSS THE BOARDS

From aerospace & defense to telecom equipment, industry rankings of median knowledge-capital earnings.

Industry Knowl. Capital ($ millions) Knowl Earnings '99 ($ millions) Change in Knowl. Earnings '98-'99 ($ millions) Knowl. Capital / Book Value Market Value / Book Value Market Value / Compre- hensive Value Market Value 8/31/00 ($ millions)
Aerospace & Defense 23,447 1,417 65 3.58 1.8 .50 11,407
Airlines 7,949 399 22 2.12 1.0 0.55 5,496
Biotech 4,393 171 40 5.18 16.3 3.07 13,940
Chemicals 9,948 632 42 3.08 2.2 0.75 7,746
Computer Hardware 49,857 2,490 389 6.69 17.5 1.85 202,719
Computer Software 38,908 1,782 279 5.68 15.2 2.40 48,465
Electrical 7,690 450 29 3.70 3.6 0.75 6,081
Electric Utilities 10,351 691 177 1.11 2.1 0.99 19,418
Food / Beverages 18,565 1,306 67 7.48 9.1 1.08 27,007
Forest Products 8,884 854 285 0.87 1.58 0.81 10,322
Home Products 19,296 1,097 109 8.10 6.6 1.11 29,257
Industrial 23,132 1,166 113 3.65 3.3 0.81 16,922
Media 16,759 646 119 0.94 2.7 1.40 82,396
Motor Vehicles 13,413 962 97 3.50 1.9 0.46 9,205
Newspapers 5,619 336 44 3.77 3.2 0.67 6,594
Oil 24,559 2,210 585 1.71 3.4 1.27 55,150
Pharmaceuticals 75,224 4,295 621 8.44 12.2 1.34 116,073
Retail 15,406 885 115 2.89 3.8 1.52 18,486
Semiconductors 42,029 1,859 1,051 6.23 12.6 2.08 89,911
Specialty Retail 10,320 512 84 2.62 8.0 1.77 17,154
Telecom 81,221 4,851 660 3.26 3.5 1.00 118,288
Telecom Equip. 26,947 1,684 615 3.25 7.7 1.78 96,184

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CFO's Second Annual Knowledge Capital Scorecard: A Knowing Glance
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