 |
(continued)
Companies with some of the highest ratios, such
as Broadcom (8.5) and Siebel Systems (5.8), have since experienced
some of the most severe slides in the stock market. Broadcom is down
80 percent since last August, and Siebel is down 60 percent. In
contrast, companies trading at low multiples of comprehensive value
fared far better. The shares of Rockwell International, for example,
with a ratio of 0.62, and Georgia Pacific (0.35) were both up 15
percent over the same period.
"We compared it with other metrics, and this was a particularly
strong result," says Bothwell. "If a stock looked overvalued
according to our metric, the market realigned it." Giving further
credence to the argument that intangible assets and knowledge
capital are the real drivers of value in corporate enterprises.
BUILDING A BETTER SCORECARD
WHAT ARE KNOWLEDGE EARNINGS and knowledge capital? New York
University accounting and finance professor Baruch Lev's methodology
for computing these values begins with an estimate of a company's
"normalized earnings." That figure is derived from the average of
three years of historical core earnings, and three years of
consensus analyst estimates as compiled by IBES International. Thus,
knowledge earnings reflect both past performance and future growth
potential.
These normalized earnings are then compared with the expected
rates of return on the company's physical and financial assets as
recorded on its balance sheet. In the competitive global
marketplace, physical and financial assets have largely become
commodities. The expected aftertax returns used in the broad
cross-sectional Scorecard are 7 percent for physical assets and 4.5
percent for financial assets. In company- specific measurements,
physical and financial assets are adjusted to fair values, and their
expected returns are adjusted to company circumstances.
The portion of normalized earnings for any given year that
exceeds the expected returns on book assets represents knowledge
earnings--the performance contribution attributable to the
intangible assets of a company. Knowledge capital is then computed
as the present discounted value of all future knowledge earnings.
Without a widely accepted expected rate of return for knowledge
assets, the average 10.5 percent historical aftertax return of three
knowledge-rich industries (software, biotechnology, and
pharmaceuticals) is used as the discount rate.
ACROSS THE BOARDS
From aerospace & defense to telecom equipment, industry
rankings of median knowledge-capital earnings.
| Industry |
Knowl.
Capital ($ millions) |
Knowl
Earnings '99 ($ millions) |
Change
in Knowl. Earnings '98-'99 ($ millions) |
Knowl.
Capital / Book Value |
Market
Value / Book Value |
Market
Value / Compre- hensive Value |
Market
Value 8/31/00 ($ millions) |
| Aerospace & Defense |
23,447 |
1,417 |
65 |
3.58 |
1.8 |
.50 |
11,407 |
| Airlines |
7,949 |
399 |
22 |
2.12 |
1.0 |
0.55 |
5,496 |
| Biotech |
4,393 |
171 |
40 |
5.18 |
16.3 |
3.07 |
13,940 |
| Chemicals |
9,948 |
632 |
42 |
3.08 |
2.2 |
0.75 |
7,746 |
| Computer Hardware |
49,857 |
2,490 |
389 |
6.69 |
17.5 |
1.85 |
202,719 |
| Computer Software |
38,908 |
1,782 |
279 |
5.68 |
15.2 |
2.40 |
48,465 |
| Electrical |
7,690 |
450 |
29 |
3.70 |
3.6 |
0.75 |
6,081 |
| Electric Utilities |
10,351 |
691 |
177 |
1.11 |
2.1 |
0.99 |
19,418 |
| Food / Beverages |
18,565 |
1,306 |
67 |
7.48 |
9.1 |
1.08 |
27,007 |
| Forest Products |
8,884 |
854 |
285 |
0.87 |
1.58 |
0.81 |
10,322 |
| Home Products |
19,296 |
1,097 |
109 |
8.10 |
6.6 |
1.11 |
29,257 |
| Industrial |
23,132 |
1,166 |
113 |
3.65 |
3.3 |
0.81 |
16,922 |
| Media |
16,759 |
646 |
119 |
0.94 |
2.7 |
1.40 |
82,396 |
| Motor Vehicles |
13,413 |
962 |
97 |
3.50 |
1.9 |
0.46 |
9,205 |
| Newspapers |
5,619 |
336 |
44 |
3.77 |
3.2 |
0.67 |
6,594 |
| Oil |
24,559 |
2,210 |
585 |
1.71 |
3.4 |
1.27 |
55,150 |
| Pharmaceuticals |
75,224 |
4,295 |
621 |
8.44 |
12.2 |
1.34 |
116,073 |
| Retail |
15,406 |
885 |
115 |
2.89 |
3.8 |
1.52 |
18,486 |
| Semiconductors |
42,029 |
1,859 |
1,051 |
6.23 |
12.6 |
2.08 |
89,911 |
| Specialty Retail |
10,320 |
512 |
84 |
2.62 |
8.0 |
1.77 |
17,154 |
| Telecom |
81,221 |
4,851 |
660 |
3.26 |
3.5 |
1.00 |
118,288 |
| Telecom Equip. |
26,947 |
1,684 |
615 |
3.25 |
7.7 |
1.78 |
96,184 |
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